How concerned should we be about Theatrical Distribution?

Theatrical distribution is the commercial screening of a film in cinemas. The distributor secures agreements with theaters, manages delivery logistics, and collects a share of the ticket sales.

My answer to this is simple in terms of financial and aesthetic-a lot.

The editor in ‘All the President’s Men’ tells Bob Woodward and Carl Berstein ‘You know there’s not much riding on this, except the First Amendment, the freedom of the press and maybe the future of the country’. The future of cinema attendance will probably not have such a momentous potential impact, but it is of enormous significance in terms of quality and finance for films.

But there is hope on the horizon, thanks to ‘Zootopia 2’ which took $556million worldwide last weekend; the highest opening ever for an animated film which should pass $1billion at the box office and ‘Wicked: For Good’ which has taken $400 million worldwide in the last 10 days.

It is estimated that about a quarter of the UK population go to the cinema at least once a year, which is encouraging. A quarter of total cinema admissions are London centric. Last year there were 126 million admissions in the UK: a pittance compared to the 1946 peak of 1.635 billion. From 1940 to 1956 admissions never fell below 1 billion. From 1956 television became increasingly popular in homes. The most popular all-time film in the UK is ‘Gone with the Wind’ with 35 million all-time admissions. Scarlett O’Hara became a symbol of survival for the British public during World War II. The next two most popular films are ‘The Sound of Music’ and ‘Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs’.

The current threat to cinema has come from the impact of streaming. Homes have sophisticated screens with excellent sound systems, and it can be very convenient to stay at home, especially in the current weather. Added to that, films are often shown almost immediately after their release.

But home viewing is often interrupted by domestic distractions, and a films impact can be dissipated. The entrance of the shark in ‘Jaws’, the shower scene in ‘Psycho’ and the diner scene in ‘When Sally met Harry’ are nowhere as memorable when not viewed for the first time in the cinema. These scenes were shot for the big screen experience.

The decline in theatrical distribution is particularly challenging for independent films. A key part of their financing model has been pre-sales whereby a distributor pays an upfront sum for the rights to distribute a film in a specific territory before it is completed. This is used as collateral for a loan. It is more difficult to get a theatrical release for an independent film due to theatres preferring blockbusters that they hope will guarantee a full house. The short window from release to availability on streaming negates the benefit of word-of-mouth recommendations.

On a more optimistic note, at the recent American Film Market many producers maintained that there is still a significant demand for going to the movies, but a key driver more than ever is the necessity for quality.

Long live Cinema!

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